On the optimality of limit cycles in dynamic economic systems

The purpose of this paper is to derive conditions for the optimality of a limit cycle in a dynamic economic system and to interpret them economically. A fairly general two-state continuous-time nonlinear optimal control problem is considered. It turns out that for this class of models three different economic mechanisms can be identified as the possible source of limit cycles. One relates to an intertemporal substitution effect expressed in terms of complementarity over time, the second one is a dominating cross effect between the state variables of the system (i.e., the capital stocks in our model), and the third one is positive growth at the equilibrium.We acknowledge the helpful comments by William A. Brock, Gerhard Sorger, Franz Wirl, and two anonymous referees. The research was partly supported by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601.     

On the persistence of corruption

This paper tries to answer the question why the phenomenon of corruption seems to be inherently existent in any society. The dynamic model presented shows how rational agents may generate multiple equilibria of corruption within the same kind of socio-economic system. We assume that the individual disutility caused by the loss of reputation from a corrupt transaction depends on the acceptance of corrupt behavior by the representative individual. Depending on the values of some key parameters like the marginal utility of corrupt behavior and the initial acceptance of corruption a completely corrupt equilibrium where all people completely accept corruption or a completely honest equilibrium where corruption is not accepted at all may be the limit state of the optimal path. Also inner equilibria in-between exist; however, they are always unstable.     

Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach

Due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive. Therefore, in order to study the effects of technological progress, a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished. We determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress. In the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs, i.e. current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future, because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods. In case that only investments in new machines are possible, actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises.     

Politico-economic cycles of regulation and deregulation

This paper considers politico-economic cycles that do not depend on the exogenous electoral cycles. More precisely, the paper develops a positive model of intertemporal subsidy strategies for an authoritarian and dynastic government. It will be shown — applying the Hopf bifurcation theorem — that cyclical strategies, i.e. waves of regulation, populism alternating with deregulation, cuts in social programmes, etc., may be optimal.     

Gap in relative importance of service activities closed

Conclusion Overall it is evident that the relative importance of services and service activity trends in the USA and west Germany is very similar. In other words the activity structure in Germany is indeed “modern”. Also in highly productive areas of production, value adding largely takes the form of service activities. Thus the employment problem in Germany results not from outdated activity structures; the causes are rather those macroeconomic reasons to which the DIW has repeatedly drawn attention⁷. German economic policy must ensure that the framework of macroeconomic conditions is changed to allow jobs to be created. Whether these jobs are created in certain branches or activities is of secondary importance. Having said this, in Germany, too, it is to be expected that more than two out of every three new jobs created will be service jobs. Even so, a quarter of new jobs will be created in industry.     

Produktionslenkung und Preisbildung in der Marktform des Kollektivmonopols

Ohne ZusammenfassungMit 13 Abbildungen